https://engineering-leadership-preview.hinshelwood.com/tags/estimation/ Recent content in Estimation on Engineering Leadership in AI & Software Hugo en Tue, 16 Jun 2026 17:40:35 +0000 https://engineering-leadership-preview.hinshelwood.com/articles/deciphering-the-enigma-of-story-points-across-teams/ Thu, 21 Sep 2023 08:00:00 +0000 https://engineering-leadership-preview.hinshelwood.com/articles/deciphering-the-enigma-of-story-points-across-teams/ Story Points are useful for team discussions and backlog refinement but are too subjective for comparing teams or predicting delivery. Focus instead on objective metrics like throughput, cycle time, and work in process to measure and improve team performance, while also considering value delivered using evidence-based management practices. Shift your attention from normalising Story Points to tracking flow metrics and value to make better decisions and optimise outcomes. https://engineering-leadership-preview.hinshelwood.com/articles/my-first-scrum-team-in-the-wild/ Sun, 03 Apr 2011 21:44:22 +0000 https://engineering-leadership-preview.hinshelwood.com/articles/my-first-scrum-team-in-the-wild/ A real-world account of guiding a new Scrum team through their first sprint, covering estimation, story points, sprint planning, and handling unfinished work. https://engineering-leadership-preview.hinshelwood.com/videos/rethinking-software-estimation-embrace-probabilistic-forecasting-for-agile-success/ Thu, 05 Dec 2024 06:30:00 +0000 https://engineering-leadership-preview.hinshelwood.com/videos/rethinking-software-estimation-embrace-probabilistic-forecasting-for-agile-success/ Traditional software estimation is often inaccurate and burdens teams, so shifting to probabilistic forecasting based on historical data provides more realistic delivery predictions and reduces pressure. Breaking work into smaller pieces and aiming for high confidence levels, such as 85 percent, helps teams adapt to uncertainty and improve outcomes. Development managers should move away from precise estimates and instead use probability-based forecasts to guide planning and decision-making. https://engineering-leadership-preview.hinshelwood.com/tags/service-level-expectation/ Mon, 05 May 2025 09:46:11 +0000 https://engineering-leadership-preview.hinshelwood.com/tags/service-level-expectation/ A Service Level Expectation (SLE) is a forecast used by Scrum Teams to estimate the time it should take for a work item to move from initiation to completion within their workflow. Originating from practices that combine elements of Scrum and Kanban, the SLE is defined by two components: a specific range of elapsed days and the probability that work items will be completed within that timeframe, such as stating that 85 percent of items should be finished in eight days or less. The SLE is calculated using the team’s historical cycle time data, which measures how long work items have taken to complete in the past. If such data is not yet available, teams are encouraged to make an informed estimate and refine it as more data becomes available. The SLE is made transparent to all team members and stakeholders, serving as a tool for identifying flow issues and prompting inspection and adaptation when expectations are not met. In agile and DevOps contexts, the SLE is valuable because it enhances predictability, supports continuous improvement, and helps teams manage stakeholder expectations by providing a clear, data-driven understanding of delivery timelines. Keeping the SLE shorter than the length of a Sprint further improves the team’s ability to deliver reliably and respond to change. https://engineering-leadership-preview.hinshelwood.com/tags/estimation/ Tue, 11 Feb 2025 10:17:24 +0000 https://engineering-leadership-preview.hinshelwood.com/tags/estimation/ Estimation is a fundamental practice within Agile and Scrum methodologies that allows teams to predict the effort and time necessary to complete tasks or deliver features. Originating from the need to manage uncertainty in project management, estimation employs empirical data and collaborative techniques to align stakeholder expectations and foster a shared understanding of project scope and timelines. This practice transcends mere numerical assignment; it involves engaging the entire team in discussions that utilise collective knowledge and experience, thereby enhancing both accuracy and team buy-in. Effective estimation is crucial as it enables teams to deliver value in a predictable and sustainable manner, facilitating improved planning and resource allocation. It also supports continuous improvement through a feedback loop that compares past estimates with actual outcomes, refining future forecasting. This iterative process promotes a culture of transparency and accountability, which is vital for high-performing teams. Unlike broader concepts such as Agile Planning or Backlog Refinement, estimation focuses on the tactical execution of tasks, serving as a foundational element for successful Agile practices. By incorporating estimation into their workflows, organisations can improve their agility and responsiveness in a rapidly changing market, ultimately leading to better outcomes for customers and stakeholders.